Publications worldwide whose editorial content is focused on wine and alcoholic beverages have been lamenting the declining demand across most of the standard drinks categories. High-end tequila appears to have bucked the trend for the moment, as have the nasty spirit coolers, which taste like soft drinks but carry the punch of a knuckle-duster in a velvet glove. For the rest, producers are like war-weary, battle-hardened soldiers on the Great War’s Western Front — fighting hard not to lose ground, with the smell of death everywhere and the scent of victory only a distant memory.
Some of what drives the trend is generational. Those aged above 40 still consume regularly. Research published in the UK shows that 23% of those aged 80 or more drink daily; likewise, 33% of those in the 60-80 age group. However, 50% of those in the 18-39 group only consume alcohol on special occasions (and 23% of them are now teetotal).
The reasons for this trend towards abstinence are complex and vary depending on the society, the availability of disposable income and, of course, peer group pressure. Propaganda trumpeting the perceived health benefits of abstinence undoubtedly plays a role: the World Health Organisation (WHO), long in thrall to temperance groups (a big percentage of its funding comes from bodies whose primary aim is prohibitionist) puts out a solid stream of disinformation — selective research cobbled together from aggregated data — claiming that “there is no safe level of alcohol consumption”. That moderate drinkers (as a group) live longer than abstainers (and overimbibers) is disregarded. The long-term objective of the WHO appears to be a blanket ban (along the lines of antitobacco legislation).
Lack of disposable income also plays a role. UK-based research shows that those earning more than £100k annually were more likely to indulge than those with less spare cash. Here the change might really be generational. Gen Z-ers may be battling to pay college debt and accommodation costs: if they need to relax, recreational drugs are readily accessible and often for less money.
Smartphone usage may also have contributed to the way under-35-year-olds interact. Many are less sociable and more withdrawn. Unlike their counterparts from the 1980s, for whom alcohol offered a way of overcoming their anxieties, today’s device addicts can retreat to an inner world — with no need to seek lubricants to break down their inhibitions.
Happily for South African wine producers (who are feeling no less beleaguered than their overseas competitors) our domestic market has proved surprisingly resilient. Yes, it’s down year on year, and trade is tough. But the volume decline is 10%-12%, about half of the numbers being bandied about in overseas markets. Part of the reason for this has been the swing to wine as the “universal beverage” of our new middle class. Studies over the past decade have shown that wine is the most gender-agnostic of alcoholic beverages, meeting the needs of men and women socialising together — as opposed to beer (for men alone) and gin or coolers (when women get together).
Research conducted at WineX last year showed the extent to which wine now occupies center stage for urban middle classes. Interviews with more than 200 of the 3,000 couples who attended either of the two public nights of the show identified an audience with an average age about 40, 50% or more of whom earned more than R40,000 a month. Eighty-eight percent of this group had at least one university degree and 47% of those interviewed were attending their first WineX — suggesting that there’s a real hunger to acquire knowledge of and a familiarity with wine. Most buy from wine stores, though 24% shop at wine farms and a similar percentage go online.
Compare this with France, where wine consumption has dropped by more than 80% since 1945 and more than 60% since the 1970s. The Cape wine industry may be battling tough market conditions, but it’s not yet facing the prospect of annihilation.
Business Day
